Africa is a youthful continent and the demographics of adolescents and youth will largely shape the future social and economic development prospects of the continent. Africa’s share of the world population will increase from 13 percent in 2012 to 24 percent in 2050. Africa’s median age was 19.7 in 2012 and will increase to 25.4 in 2050. This is in contrast to median age of 30.4 for the world, which is projected to reach 37.9 in 2050 (Janneh 2012).
Approximately 85 percent of all the people in Africa in 2012 were below age 45 while only 5 percent of them were aged 60 or more. As these ratios are not expected to change much by 2050, Africa will continue to be youthful for the foreseeable future. Young people below age 30 will increase from about 729 million in 2012 to 1.2 billion in 2050. Within the same period, adolescents aged 10 to 19 will increase from 237 million to 416 million, and youth aged 15 to 24 will increase from about 212 million to 391 million (Janneh 2012).
These people need to be provided for so that they will be productive and contribute positively to society. If left to grow in poverty, the situation will only get worse. Investment in food, housing, health, and education are a must for a brighter future. These investments will make the future more productive. Although youth literacy has increased, and gender disparities in education attainment have narrowed, many countries still have very low enrollment of less than 5 percent in tertiary education. There is need to extend progress made in achieving universal primary education to secondary and tertiary levels. Besides improving the knowledge and skills levels, investment in secondary and tertiary education will promote the contribution of youth and adolescents to productivity and competitiveness of the African economies.
Youth in Africa face the challenge of high unemployment and poverty, and low productive jobs mainly in the informal sector. Many African youth perish in the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea while trying to travel in search of job opportunities in Europe. This unfortunate situation will continue to be perpetuated unless major transformational development policies are initiated within Africa. Therefore, there is an urgent need for addressing youth unemployment in Africa. Economic diversifcation and transformation will create employment opportunities for the African youth entering the labor market every year.
Economic growth and development will also simultaneously address the problems of poverty and inequality and create stability in societies. Signifcant investment in health, education, and employment will enable African countries to reap high economic returns from the large and rapidly increasing number of youth and adolescents. They will supply the labor market and constitute the rising market of African middle class.
With lack of opportunities in the rural areas, most youth are pushed to the urban areas. The urban areas are where open unemployment and glaring inequalities are much more dangerous to individual and national security. Hence, urbanization is one of the most signifcant population trends and problems in Africa. And as education expands, the rate of rural-urban migration will accelerate. Without dynamic industrial economies, economic, social, and political problems will intensify in the continent. To reap any demographic dividend, Africa must frst massively invest in its youth.
Urban population growth is increasing rapidly in virtually all African countries, driven both by natural increase in urban areas and widespread rural-urban migration. The process of urbanization can provide countries with enormous opportunities to achieve sustainable development, including economic growth, poverty reduction, and service provision via agglomeration economies of scale. At the same time, rapid urbanization can bring with it signifcant challenges depending on government capacity, planning, and response, such as slum growth, inadequate provision of services and infrastructure, poor health and quality of life, and environmental degradation. In Africa, at present, the negative aspects of urbanization by far outweigh the positives. This trend needs urgent reversal through economic transformation.
Although Africa is the least urbanized continent, its rate of urbanization is the fastest in the world. Urban inhabitants grew from 33 million persons in 1950 to 414 million in 2011, 471 million by 2015, and are expected to reach 744 million by the year 2030, that is 47.7 percent of the population (UNECA and AUC 2013b).
Rapid urbanization implies that the urban settlements will progressively absorb the population growth in Africa. The continent will therefore witness an increase in population concentration in urban areas. An industrial economy absorbs more population than a more predominantly primary producing economy.
No
City
Country
Population (Thousands)
2010
2025
1
Lagos
Nigeria
10,578
15,810
2
Kinshasa
D. R. Congo
8,754
15,041
3
Cairo
Egypt
11,001
13,531
4
Luanda
Angola
4,772
8,077
5
Abidjan
Cote d’Ivoire
4,125
6,321
6
Nairobi
Kenya
3,523
6,246
7
Dar es Salaam
Tanzania
3,349
6,202
8
Alexandria
4,380
5,648
9
Kano
3,395
5,060
10
Addis Ababa
Ethiopia
2,930
4,757
11
Dakar
Senegal
2,863
4,338
12
Ibadan
2,837
4,237
13
Johannesburg
South Africa
3,670
4,127
14
Casablanca
Morocco
3,284
4,065
15
Cape Town
3,405
3,824
16
Ekurhuleni
3,202
3,614
17
Algiers
Algeria
2,800
3,595
18
Accra
Chana
2,342
3,497
19
Durban
2,879
3,241
20
Douala
Cameroon
2,125
3,131
Source:African Development Bank. Tracking Africa's Progress in Figures, 2014.
At present, rapid urbanization entails high levels of urban poverty. Most stud ies reveal that between 15 and 65 percent of African city dwellers are living in poverty, very often in informal settlements with limited access to infrastructure, poor health and environmental conditions, and few social or urban services (UNECA and AUC 2013b). While cities continue to attract signifcant num bers of rural-to-urban migrants, primarily for economic opportunities, indica tors for the urban poor in Africa are often the same or potentially worse than their rural counterparts. Inadequate infrastructure and high crime rates threaten poorer parts of cities. Well-informed and sound policies are needed to meet the demands of the growing numbers of urban poor, particularly to secure for them the benefts of urban living. A booming manufacturing economy would considerably overcome these challenges. It would substantially contribute to the reduction of unemployment, poverty, and inequalities.
Rural development and encouragement of growth of medium-sized cities in the regions would decongest the single large cities, usually the capital city of each country. These programs will be possible with a dynamic self-sustaining industrial economy coupled with a deliberate public policy to promote development in the national regions instead of leaving the backwash effects of the colonial pattern of development to dominate national economic policy.